Crop Estimates

Crop Reporting Service releases up to three estimates of Area, Production and Average Yield for different crops as described below:

First Estimate
This provides area under the crop and is prepared on the basis of girdawari /crop acreage survey in sample villages just after completion of sowing of crops.

Second Estimate
Second estimate of crops provides both area and production. Area is adopted from the 1st estimate while production is worked out by conducting growers opinion survey, taking into consideration availability / quality of seed, climatic conditions, inputs availability, irrigation water supply condition and visual judgment of field staff.

Final Estimate
The final estimate of area and production is prepared on the basis of:

Area under the crop supplied by the Revenue Department on complete enumeration (census).
Average yields are worked out through objective crop cutting experiments conducted in 1240 randomly selected villages/fields in the province by the field staff of Crop Reporting Service.

Our Process

The process of area and production estimates for the crops is as follows

Acreage Estimation Process

Drawing of valid conclusions after conduct of successful acreage and yield estimation surveys is important which involves application of statistical techniques. A brief account of some of the commonly used procedures/calculations involved is given here under:

Area Statistics

Under the present system three estimates of acreage of major crops are issued. Of these 1st and 2nd are based on the sample surveys of the CRS where as final estimate is based on the census data of mauza wise reports i.e. Jinswars compiled by the Revenue Staff.

Under the surveys; acreage of major crops is calculated at districts level basis. Area under the crop in the sample villages is multiplied by their raising factors and totaled upto arrive at the acreage under the crop in the district.

Ratio Estimate

The current year survey frame are divided by the previous year survey frame. This gives a ratio which measures change over the previous year. This ratio is applied to previous year’s final acreage estimate for arriving at current year estimate. The summation of these estimates for all districts provides estimates of acreage in the province.

Ratio estimate of the
crop in the district

Survey area of the current year/Survey area of the last year

Final estimate
of last year

This method is used to reduce the variance of the estimate and is more efficient than the direct method.

Crop Area of the Province = Sum of District estimates

Average Yield Estimation Process

The yield estimation process includes the following steps:

Preparation of index / frame of concerned crop
Selection of Fields
Location of plot
Harvesting, picking and thrashing
Driage

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